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World Corn Market and The Latest Situation

According to the report of International Grains Council (IGC) dated 25 August 2016; corn production of the world which was 1018 million tons in 2014/15 season has decreased to 969 million tons in 2015/16 season. IGC’s forecast for 2016/17 season points out 1030 million tons with a decrease of 60 million tons.

arastirmaUp until America was discovered in late 15th century, corn wasn’t known in the other parts of the world. Corn, which reached to Europe in the 16th century and from there to various regions of the world, gained a place as staple food in a lot of countries. It is estimated that corn was first used around Mexico. It spread to majority of America and became a product that Native Americans frequently used in 2500s BC.

Around 70 percent of corn, which currently, is used both as a staple food and as animal feed in nearly all parts of the world, contains starch and 8 percent of it contains oil. Endosperm that forms 80 percent of corn seed has starch rate of 90 percent. Also, corn which is rich in vitamins is a source of dietary fibers, phosphorus and magnesium.

Corn, a warm climate grain, sprouts at minimum 9-10 °C. The most appropriate growth is realized at 20-25 °C. Together with the fact that corn is not too picky about the soil, it can also be cultivated in various types of soil when proper conditions provided. However, endurance of corn to water and salinity in soil is lower in comparison to paddy rice, cotton and beet. It gives the most qualified products in soil that is rich in organic matters, aerated well, deep and warm.

Corn which is cultivated on nearly 180 million hectare (178.6 million hectare in 2014/15 season) in the world came third after wheat (224.8 million hectare in 2014/15 season) and rice (158.9 million hectare in 2014/15 season) in terms of cultivation area in the past. But today it is the second after wheat. According to the data of U.S. Department of Agriculture for 2014/15 season; China has the biggest share with 37.1 million hectare when the cultivated area of corn considered. Although USA is the leader in terms of yields, it comes right after China with 33.6 million hectare in sense of the width of cultivated areas. Brazil is also the third with 15.8 million hectare.

WORLD CORN PRODUCTION AND PRODUCER COUNTRIES
According to the report of International Grains Council (IGC) dated 25 August 2016; corn production of the world which was 998 million tons in 2013/14 season has reached to 2,18 million tons in 2014/15 season. According to the forecast of IGC; world corn production will rise and reach to 1,30 milion tons in 2016/2017 season.

When the end of period stocks of ICG viewed, it is seen that world corn stocks which was 131 million tons in 2012/13 season reached to 182 million tons in 2013/14 season and to 207 million tons in 2014/15 season. Estimating that stocks reached around 207 million tons in 2015/16 season, IGC also forecasts that there will be an increase of 11 million tons and stocks will reach at 218 million tons.

The highest corn production in the world by years belongs to USA. According to the data of USDA; USA provides 345 million tons of world corn production which was 959 million tons in 2015/16 season. There is a decrease of 38 million tons in the forecasted production amount of USA for 2016/17 season. According to this, this season USA will produce 383,3 million tons of corn. China comes second after USA in terms of corn production. Corn production of China which was 215,6 million tons in 2014/15 season increased to 224,5 million tons in season 2015/16. In 2013/14 season, it is forecasted that it would reach to 216 million tons of production with an increase of 8,5 million tons in 2016/17 season.

USA and China meet alone more than half of world corn production which was 959 million tons (2015/16). Brazil follows them with 67 million tons of production. EU countries coming right after Brazil decreased to 59 million tons of production by obtaining a decrease of 16 million tons in 2015/16 season when compared to the previous season.

Argentina with 28 million tons, Mexico with 25,8 million tons, Ukraine with 23,3 million tons, India with 21 million tons, Canada with 13,6 million tons and Russia with 13,1 million tons, Indonesia with 9,3 million tons, Philipiines with 7,5 million tons, Nigeria and South Africa with 7 million, Serbia with 6 million tons and Ethiopia with 5 million tons follow the EU countries.

EU and USA have the highest decrease rate in corn production in 2015/16 season. It is forecasted that corn production of EU will decrease 18 million tons and this is 16 million tons for USA. Also, the highest decrease is expected from China in 2016/17 season. China is forecasted to decrease 8 million tons in 2016/17 season. The highest growth is expected from USA with 38 million tons and Brazil with 15,5 million tons.

WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION AND CONSUMER COUNTRIES
Corn is one of the most important staple foods along with wheat and rice in developing countries. Particularly in Sub-Sahara and Latin American countries, corn that nearly half of the population consumes is preferred by approximately 900 million people around the world. Corn is also one of the most preferred grains as animal feed around the world.

It is forecasted that corn would be the most consumed food product in developing countries by 2025. In addition, that yield of corn would reduce and developing countries will have to import more amounts is one the forecasts by 2050.

Currently, USA is the biggest consumer of corn. A decrease of 2 million tons in the country’s consumption was seen along with the decrease in production in 2015/16 season with 298,8 million tons. The forecasted consumption amount of USA for 2015/16 season which is nearly 298,8 million tons is expected to reach 312,4 million tons in 2016/17 season.

The largest consumption amount after USA belongs to China. The consumption amount of China in 2014/15 season which is 202 million tons has increased to 217,5 million tons in 2015/16 season. It is seen that the forecasted consumption amount of China is nearly 226 million tons in 2016/17 season. So, the growth rate of China’s corn consumption will continue its upward movement in 2015/16 season.

USA and China form alone more than 50 percent of the corn consumption which is 958 million tons (2015/16) as it is in production. EU countries come right after USA and China in corn consumption. The forecasted consumption amounts of EU countries for 2015/16 season is 72,7 million tons. The consumption is forecasted to reach almost 73,2 million tons for 2016/17 season.

Another country having high consumption amount is Brazil. Brazil consumed 56 million tons of corn in 2015/16 season; this amount is 1 million ton less than the previous season. It is forecasted that consumption in Brazil would reach to 58 million tons in 2016/17 season.

Mexico with 36,7 million tons, India with 22,3 million tons, Japan with 15,1 million tons, and Egypt with 14,7 million tons and Canada with 13,1 million tons follow Brazil in world corn consumption.

WORLD CORN TRADE
Almost 120-130 million tons of world corn production takes part in international trade. When the world’s largest corn producers viewed, the majority of the produced amount seems to be directed to domestic consumption. According to the report of IGC; corn trade which was 128 million tons in 2014/15 season reached to 138,9 million tons in 2015/16 season but decreased to 133,6 million tons with a decrease of 5,3 million tons in 2015/16 season. IGC forecasts that corn amount in world trade in 2016/17 will be around 135 million tons with an increase of 2 million tons.

According to the data of USDA; the largest share in corn trade for 2015/16 season belongs to USA with 49,5 million tons. USA corn export showed an increase of 2,7 million tons in 2015/16 season compared to the previous season and reached at 49,5 million tons. It is forecasted that the country’s export amount which increased little in the previous season would continue to increase in 2016/17 season and reach at 55 million tons.

The second largest corn exporter country after USA is Brazil. Brazil, which showed an important increase in 2015/16 season compared to the previous seasons, carried 33,5 million tons of corn export. However, with the decrease in trade in 2016/17 season, the country’s corn exports will decrease to 20 million tons.

According to the data of 2015/16 season; the third largest corn exporter country of the world is Argentina. Argentina which carried out 18,4 million tons of corn export in 2014/15 season reached to 20,5 million tons of corn export amount in 2015/16 season. Forecasts show that the increase will continue in 2016/17 too and the country will export around 25 million tons of corn.

Ukraine comes fourth after Argentina in world corn export. The corn export of Ukraine which is 19,6 million tons in 2014/15 season decreased to 16.4 million tons in 2015/16 season. In 2016/17 season, it is expected to remain around 17 million tons.

In 2015/16 season data; Russia with 4,4 million tons, Paraguay with 2,7 million tons, EU countries with 1,8 million tons and Serbia with 1,6 million tons follow Ukraine.

The largest share in corn import belongs to Asian countries. According to the data of 2015/16 season; Japan is the leader in world corn import. Total corn import of Japan is 14.6 million tons in 2015/16 season, according to the data of USDA. Regarding corn import, Mexico with 11 million tons, EU countries with 10 million, South Korea with 8,7 million tons, Egypt with 7,8 million tons, Vietnam with 6,2 million tons and Iran with 5,5 million tons.

We also suggest you to read our previous article titled "World Feed Market and Turkey".

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