The current data on barley, which has exceeded 140 million tons of production globally, indicate that the production in 2016/17 season, ending in June has decreased by a certain extent. At the latest report by the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS) in June, global barley production which is 149,2 million tons in 2015/16 season is seen to realize 147 million tons in 2016/17 season. Projections that are about 2017/18 season forecast the decreasing will be continued and it will reach record level.
Barley, which is the most important raw material of feed and malt industry, ranks 4th in the global grain production of 2 billion tons, with a production volume of 140 million tons, after corn, wheat and rice.
The US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS), which is one of the few organizations publishing global production volumes of grains, published its latest report in June. According to the report, the global barley production which was 141,7 million tons in 2014/15 season reached 149,2 million tons in 2015/16 season. 2016/17 season’s forecasts that are ended in June, indicate that the production decreased 147 million tons with 2,2 million tons of decline. USDA which published 2017/18 season projections in their last report, forecast that barley production will show record decrease of 10 million tons next season. According to this forecast, global barley production will decrease 137,4 million tons in 2017/18 season.
The report dated May 25 by the International Grain Council (IGC) points out that global barley production, which amounted to 144,4 million tons in 2014/15 season, reached 149,9 million tons in 2015/16 season. The forecast of IGC for 2016/17 shows that production remains same level with 149,7 million tons. But, 2017/18 projection indicates about 7 million tons of declining (142,8 million tons) in barley production.
A comparison of the data of these two organizations demonstrates that there is a 3 million tons difference between data on global barley production and forecasts for the oncoming season. But, however the amounts are different, forecast of two organizations are same about record downward forecast in 2017/18 season. This decrease expectation indicates that prices of barley (most important raw material of feed industry) can be risen next season.
CURRENT STATUS OF MAJOR BARLEY PRODUCERS
In global barley production, the highest production comes from the EU member countries. According to USDA’s data, in global barley production, which amounted to 149,2 million tons in 2015/16 season, a total of 62 million tons came from EU countries. The total barley production in EU countries decreased 60 million tons in 2016/17 season, and it is forecasted to remain at 59,5 million tons in 2017/18 season.
Russia, the second largest barley producer after EU countries, produced 17 million tons barley in 2015/16 season, according to USDA data. The total barley production which went up to 17,5 million tons in 2016/17 season is forecasted to decrease 17 million tons in 2017/18 season.
EU countries and Russia produce more than half of the total global barley volume, which was 147 million tons in 2016/17 season. These two countries are followed by Australia with a production of 13 million tons in 2016/17 season. Australia is forecasted to decrease 8 million tons with 5 million tons of decline in 2017/18 season. It means that this decline is half of 10 million ton of declining worldwide. The biggest source of downward expectation in global barley production is Australia. Australia is followed by Ukraine, which produced 9,9 million tons of barley in 2016/17 season, and it is forecasted to remain at 7,4 million tons with 2,5 million tons of declining in 2017/18 season. The biggest downward expectation is sourced by Ukraine after Australia.
Ukraine is followed by Canada with 8,8 million tons, Turkey with 4,7 million tons, the USA with 4,3 million tons, Argentina with 3,3 million tons, Kazakhstan with 3,2 million tons and Iran with 3 million tons.
GLOBAL BARLEY CONSUMPTION
The downward forecast of global barley production by USDA has also been reflected in consumption. According to this, global barley consumption, which was 147,9 million tons in 2015/16 season and reached 148,1 million tons in 2016/17 season, is forecasted to decrease 144 million tons in 2017/18 season. Contrary to production, the forecasts of IGC for consumption are different, but they support the expectations of USDA. That is, IGC also forecasted that production of barley which is estimated to be 147,3 million tons in 2016/17 season in May report, to decrease 145,1 million tons in 2017/18 season.
Like in production, EU countries also lead the global barley consumption. According to USDA’s data, barley consumption in EU countries, which amounted to 51,3 million tons in 2015/16 season, rise 55,4 million tons in 2016/17 season. It is forecasted to decline the production and decrease to 53,8 million tons in 2017/18 season. The highest consumer of barley after EU countries is Russia. Russia consumed 13,6 million tons in 2015/16 and 13,8 millon tons of barley in 2016/17 season. The forecasted consumption in Russia for 2017/18 season is 13,9 million tons.Saudi Arabia, which consumed 11 million tons of barley in 2016/17 season, was the third country in global ranking. It is forecasted that Saudi Arabia will increase its consumption in 2017/18 season, reaching 11,3 million tons.
In global barley consumption in 2016/17 season, Saudi Arabia is followed by China with 7,9 million tons, Canada with 7,1 million tons, Turkey with 5,5 million tons, Iran with 4,8 million tons, the USA with 4,6 million tons, Ukraine with 4,4 million tons and Australia with 3,3 million tons.
CURRENT SITUATION IN GLOBAL BARLEY TRADE
Approximately 30 million tons of global barley production is subject to international trade. According to IGC data, global barley trade, which amounted to 29,4 million tons in 2015/16 season, go down to 27,5 million tons in 2016/17 season. However, the forecasts of IGC indicate that global barley trade will remain same with 27,4 million tons in 2017/18 season. The USDA data also supports the IGC data in global barley trade. But, downward forecast of USDA indicate higher declining with 4 million tons.
By countries, Australia, Ukraine, the EU, and Russia lead the export, and Saudi Arabia, China and Iran lead the import in global barley trade. According to USDA data; 23 million tons in global barley export, which amounted to a total of 28 million tons in 2016/17 season, was made by Australia (8,7 million tons), Ukraine (5,5 million tons), the EU (5,4 million tons), and Russia (3,4 million tons). In 2017/18 season, all countries except for EU countries and Russia, are forecasted to decrease their export volumes. A increase by approximately 1,6 million tons is expected in the exports of the EU.
According to 2016/17 data in global barley exports, Russia ranks the fourth, followed by Argentina with 2,2 million tons, Canada with 1,4 million tons and Kazakhstan with 1 million tons.
Saudi Arabia holds the largest share in barley import. According to USDA data, barley imports by Saudi Arabia, which amounted to 10,4 million tons in 2016/17 season, will keep this amount in 2017/18 season. China which ranks second with 5,8 million tons imported in 2016/17 season, is forecasted to remain at 4,5 million tons in 2017/18 season. In global barley imports in 2016/17 season, these two countries are followed by Iran with 1,7 million tons, Libya with 1,3 million tons, Japan with 1,1 million tons and Morocco with 958,000 tons.
BARLEY PRODUCTION IN TURKEY
Turkey is among the top 10 countries in global barley production. According to USDA data, Turkey produced 7,4 million tons of barley in 2015/16 season. The production volume decreased 4,7 million tons in 2016/17 season, and it is expected to go up to 5,5 million tons in 2017/18 season.
The data of Turkish Statistics Institute (TUIK) also support these amounts, although the numbers are slightly higher. According to TUIK data, barley production amount of Turkey which is 6,3 million tons of barley in 2014, reached 8 million tons in 2015 and decreased 6,7 million tons in 2016. The difference is believed to result from the fact that USDA data is published by seasons while TUIK data is published by years.
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